- The increasing spread of Coronavirus: updated economic and investment market implications The increasing spread of Coronavirus: updated economic and investment market implications Key points While reported new coronavirus cases in China have slowed, the pickup in cases outside China has led to a renewed sharp fall in share markets and bond yields. Our base case is that the outbreak will be contained allowing share markets and bond yields to rebound in the June quarter. However, ...
- Australian growth will be constrained but here’s nine reasons why recession is unlikely Australian growth will be constrained but here’s nine reasons why recession is unlikely Key points: Australian growth is likely to be weak over the next year or so and this will prompt further monetary easing and fiscal stimulus. However, several positives suggest recession is unlikely: the current account deficit has collapsed; the $A helps stabilise the economy; the drag ...
- What’s happening to oil prices? Australians can expect to pay more for petrol at the bowser as oil prices move higher in the short-term. Yet the price rises won’t force the Reserve Bank to hike rates as a significant acceleration in inflation is unlikely. Do I see the oil price continuing to surge higher? Short term, yes it could go a ...
- Is keeping rates so low “unnatural”? AMP Capital Chief Economist Shane Oliver says investors must get used to ongoing low returns on bank deposits, with the Reserve Bank (RBA) unlikely to raise official rates for some time despite calls for action. “We are of the view that rates will be on hold at least out to 2020,” he says. “The next move ...
- Nine keys to successful investing In the rough and tumble of investment markets its very easy to get distracted: by talk of the next best thing that will make you rich, by the ever-present predictions of an imminent crash, by the worry list that constantly surrounds investment markets relating to growth, profits, interest rates, politics, etc. Continue reading
- Should the RBA raise rates to prepare households for higher global rates? It’s nearly two years since the Reserve Bank of Australia last changed interest rates – when it cut rates to a record low of 1.5% in August 2016. That’s a record period of inaction – or boredom for those who like to see action on rates whether it’s up or down. Continue reading
- Trade war risks are escalating – but a negotiated solution remains most likely The threat of a full-blown trade war has escalated in the last few weeks with the G7 meeting ending in disarray over US tariffs on imports of steel and aluminium from its allies and more importantly President Trump threatening tariffs on (so far at least) $US450bn of imports from China, and China threatening to retaliate. Continue ...
- Putting the global “debt bomb” in perspective – seven reasons to be alert but not alarmed Here’s my forecast: “The global economy is going to have a significant downturn and record levels of debt are going to make it worse.” Sound scary enough? Put it in the headline and I can be assured of lots of clicks! I might even be called a deep thinker! The problem is that there is nothing ...
- China’s economy is pretty stable – but what about high debt levels and other risks? It seems there is constant hand wringing about the risks around the Chinese economy with the common concerns being around unbalanced growth, debt, the property market, the exchange rate and capital flows and a “hard landing”. This angst is understandable to some degree. Continue reading
- Italy is a worry – but 3 reasons not to be concerned about an Itexit So far this year geopolitical developments have been having a significant impact on investment markets. Most of these revolve in some way around President Trump and the US: with the threat of a trade war between the US and China. Continue reading
