Warwick Hawksworth » Oliver’s Insights

What’s happening to oil prices?

warwickhawksworth — Wed, 08 Aug 2018 01:36:28 +0000

Australians can expect to pay more for petrol at the bowser as oil prices move higher in the short-term. Yet the price rises won’t force the Reserve Bank to hike rates as a significant acceleration in inflation is unlikely.

Do I see the oil price continuing to surge higher? Short term, yes it could go a bit higher as global demand remains strong.

Is keeping rates so low “unnatural”?

warwickhawksworth — Wed, 08 Aug 2018 01:34:52 +0000

AMP Capital Chief Economist Shane Oliver says investors must get used to ongoing low returns on bank deposits, with the Reserve Bank (RBA) unlikely to raise official rates for some time despite calls for action.

“We are of the view that rates will be on hold at least out to 2020,” he says. “The next move probably will be up, but I can’t rule out the next move being down.”

Nine keys to successful investing

warwickhawksworth — Wed, 08 Aug 2018 01:33:20 +0000

In the rough and tumble of investment markets its very easy to get distracted: by talk of the next best thing that will make you rich, by the ever-present predictions of an imminent crash, by the worry list that constantly surrounds investment markets relating to growth, profits, interest rates, politics, etc.

Should the RBA raise rates to prepare households for higher global rates?

warwickhawksworth — Thu, 28 Jun 2018 03:56:20 +0000

It’s nearly two years since the Reserve Bank of Australia last changed interest rates – when it cut rates to a record low of 1.5% in August 2016. That’s a record period of inaction – or boredom for those who like to see action on rates whether it’s up or down.

Trade war risks are escalating – but a negotiated solution remains most likely

warwickhawksworth — Wed, 27 Jun 2018 06:45:05 +0000

The threat of a full-blown trade war has escalated in the last few weeks with the G7 meeting ending in disarray over US tariffs on imports of steel and aluminium from its allies and more importantly President Trump threatening tariffs on (so far at least) $US450bn of imports from China, and China threatening to retaliate.

Putting the global “debt bomb” in perspective – seven reasons to be alert but not alarmed

warwickhawksworth — Wed, 27 Jun 2018 06:43:34 +0000

Here’s my forecast: “The global economy is going to have a significant downturn and record levels of debt are going to make it worse.” Sound scary enough? Put it in the headline and I can be assured of lots of clicks! I might even be called a deep thinker! The problem is that there is nothing new or profound in this.

China’s economy is pretty stable – but what about high debt levels and other risks?

warwickhawksworth — Mon, 04 Jun 2018 05:40:17 +0000

It seems there is constant hand wringing about the risks around the Chinese economy with the common concerns being around unbalanced growth, debt, the property market, the exchange rate and capital flows and a “hard landing”. This angst is understandable to some degree.

Italy is a worry – but 3 reasons not to be concerned about an Itexit

warwickhawksworth — Tue, 22 May 2018 23:27:21 +0000

So far this year geopolitical developments have been having a significant impact on investment markets. Most of these revolve in some way around President Trump and the US: with the threat of a trade war between the US and China.

The 2018-19 Australian Budget – saving a windfall with the hope of (decent) tax cuts to come

warwickhawksworth — Tue, 08 May 2018 23:09:05 +0000

The 2018-19 Budget will be the last before the next election (due by May 2019) and so had to provide pre-election goodies but in a way that keeps the return to surplus on track. Thanks to an improvement in the budget position since the Mid-Year review, of around $7bn per annum, this has been made relatively easy.

After the Australian household debt and east coast housing booms – interest rates on hold until 2020

warwickhawksworth — Mon, 07 May 2018 23:40:21 +0000

While the global economy is seeing its fastest growth in years and the US Federal Reserve has increased rates five times since December 2015 and is on track for more hikes this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has now left interest rates on hold for a record 21 months in a row.